Wednesday, July 27, 2005

Coalition for Darfur: Witness

This week's Coalition for Darfur post addresses the media coverage of the Darfur genocide, noting that part of the underlying cause for the lack of media coverage is the Sudanese government.
Sudan does not want journalists freely traveling around Darfur for the sole reason that their reports are going to reveal the true nature of Khartoum's genocidal campaign.

Considering this basic fact in conjunction with the efforts currently underway to expand the African Union mission in Darfur, it might behoove all involved to consider embedding journalists with the AU just as the US did during the initial weeks of the war in Iraq.

Media Coverage of Darfur

Nicholas Kristof has a very damning column on the failure of the American media to seriously cover the genocide of Darfur. Some excerpts:
More than two years have passed since the beginning of what Mr. Bush acknowledges is the first genocide of the 21st century, yet Mr. Bush barely manages to get the word "Darfur" out of his mouth. Still, it seems hypocritical of me to rage about Mr. Bush's negligence, when my own beloved institution - the American media - has been at least as passive as Mr. Bush.

...

Even the coverage of Ms. Rice's trip underscored our self-absorption. The manhandling of journalists accompanying Ms. Rice got more coverage than any massacre in Darfur has.

...

I'm outraged that one of my Times colleagues, Judith Miller, is in jail for protecting her sources. But if we journalists are to demand a legal privilege to protect our sources, we need to show that we serve the public good - which means covering genocide as seriously as we cover, say, Tom Cruise. In some ways, we've gone downhill: the American news media aren't even covering the Darfur genocide as well as we covered the Armenian genocide in 1915.

...

The real failure has been television's. According to monitoring by the Tyndall Report, ABC News had a total of 18 minutes of the Darfur genocide in its nightly newscasts all last year - and that turns out to be a credit to Peter Jennings. NBC had only 5 minutes of coverage all last year, and CBS only 3 minutes - about a minute of coverage for every 100,000 deaths. In contrast, Martha Stewart received 130 minutes of coverage by the three networks.

Incredibly, more than two years into the genocide, NBC, aside from covering official trips, has still not bothered to send one of its own correspondents into Darfur for independent reporting.

...

When I've asked television correspondents about this lapse, they've noted that visas to Sudan are difficult to get and that reporting in Darfur is expensive and dangerous. True, but TV crews could at least interview Darfur refugees in nearby Chad. After all, Diane Sawyer traveled to Africa this year - to interview Brad Pitt, underscoring the point that the networks are willing to devote resources to cover the African stories that they consider more important than genocide.

If only Michael Jackson's trial had been held in Darfur. Last month, CNN, Fox News, NBC, MSNBC, ABC and CBS collectively ran 55 times as many stories about Michael Jackson as they ran about genocide in Darfur.
And what has to be the most damning statement of all:
And, incredibly, mtvU (the MTV channel aimed at universities) has covered Darfur more seriously than any network or cable station. When MTV dispatches a crew to cover genocide and NBC doesn't, then we in journalism need to hang our heads.

Monday, July 25, 2005

"That Team"

In a recent interview, Dallas Cowboy head coach Bill Parcells referred to the New England Patriots as "[t]hat team that won it last year." In case you've forgotten, Parcells was the head coach in New England in the early to mid 90's, many of the defensive stalwarts on the team were drafted by Parcells, the coaching triumvirate behind New England's dominance these last four years (Belichick, Weis, Crennel) were all Parcells' proteges, and the personnel man behind the team (Pioli) is Parcells' son-in-law. So, basically, there are as many if not more Parcells connections in New England as there are in Dallas, but they are "that team." Think there might still be just a little friction there?

Overturning Roe & Roberts

A couple of weeks ago, I opined on the merits of overturning the Roe v. Wade decision, which prompted an interesting and instructive dialog with the Listless Lawyer. In light of the Roberts nomination to the court, Jack Balkin has an interesting take on the question and what he thinks will be the future mainstream conservative position on Roe v. Wade. I'm not sure I agree because I'm not sure what exactly is meant by "mainstream conservative." The religious right? They would never accept such a view, though I tend to think abortion is losing steam as a rallying cry so I could be wrong on that. But it's an interesting viewpoint.

Friday, July 22, 2005

Darwin and Design: The Evolution of a Flawed Debate

I've occassionally written on the debate (war?) between evolutionists and creationists, and have taken objection to both sides. Frederick Turner has written on the subject as well, commenting on the "sins" of both the creationist and the evolutionist, concluding both are dishonest and that the debate is artificial. (He has since written a followup which focuses on the level of scholarship needed to truly argue an alternative to evolution.)

Now, I disagree with a fundamental statement Turner makes: evolution has been "proved beyond reasonable doubt." One can say evidence has been presented in support of evolution, that evolution's predictions have been born out, and that based on that evolution is the predominant theory of origins in biology. That isn't the same as proof. As Rand Simberg says, "Proofs are for mathematics and the courtroom, not science."

In the late 19th century, physicists adopted the arrogant view that all the interesting questions of physics had been answered, and only a few details remained. Basically, we had theories that had explained all of physical nature, and they had all been proven. One of those remaining details was blackbody radiation, which ultimately led to quantum physics and a total reformulation of every aspect of physics. Theories that were considered proven beyond a reasonable doubt in 1870 became little more than mathematical approximations and simplifications decades later. So much for being proven.

I'm not a biologist (never really liked it, to be honest) but my understanding of evolution is that the theory as formulated today is quite different than what Darwin came up with. Evolution itself has evolved, as all of science does.

The interested reader should check out T.S. Kuhn's classic, The Structure of Scientific Revolutions. I think all science majors in college should be required to take a semester of philosophy of science. To quote Simberg again, "science is a philosophy in itself, and one that is faith based." The great scientists of the past were familiar with the philosophical underpinnings of their work. Unfortunately, as science has gotten more and more complex and specialized, that familiarity has waned to the point where many scientists don't even understand what it is they are doing.

Anyway, that's all a digression from simply pointing to Turner's essays, which I think are pretty good. (Yes, my digression is bigger than the point I was digressing from.)

Tuesday, July 19, 2005

Christian Nation

The Christian Right loves to claim that ours is a Christian nation, founded on Christianity by the founders. The founders apparently didn't get the memo. The Treaty of Peace and Friendship with Tripoli, negotiated by George Washington's administration, states
[T]he government of the United States of America is not in any sense founded on the Christian Religion.
Commenting on the historically incorrect assertions of the religious right on the subject, Andrew Sullivan writes
In fact, many of the statements of the Founding Fathers sound more like Christopher Hitchens than George W. Bush - and would be characterized as bigotry by much of the Republican right. It's important to realize that today's Christianists are not representative of the constitutional order and philosophy of this country's founding; and are, in fact, one of the deeper threats to the maintenance of the freedom bequeathed to Americans as a birthright.
These claims by the right never cease to gall me, as a Christian.

Monday, July 18, 2005

Medicinal Side Effects

I guess I'm in a Dilbert-y mood today. This strip made me think of all those TV commercials for drugs they try to get us to ask our pharmacist about. I always get a kick out of the side effects. There's the sleep aid pill that causes drowsiness. We have the estrogen pill to alleviate hot flashes in menopausal women that also increases the risk of breast cancer. Then the bladder control pill that causes diarrhea. And finally, of course, the king of all side effects: the four hour erection. These commercials are some of the some of the most entertaining things you can find on TV.

More Truth from Dilbert

This past Sunday's Dilbert cartoon had more insightful dialog. (I'm not posting the image because only part of it is interesting. Follow the link for the cartoon.)
Boss: Leaders do not plan for failure.
Dilbert: Do leaders make deceptive forecasts and later act shocked when things don't work out?
Boss: No.
Boss: A leader first makes himself believe the lie, thus turning deception into an inspiring form of optimism.
Actually, the whole cartoon can be interpreted as a metaphor for the Pentagon's pre-war Iraq occupation planning. Yes, I just used Dilbert as a metaphor for something. It's been a long day.

Involvement in Iraq Put Britain at Risk?

Since the London bombings, critics of the Iraq war have tried to blame Britain's involvement in that war as the cause of the bombings, the implication being that if Britain had kept out of the war, they would not have been bombed. The latest round in such criticism arises from a memo by Chatham House, a British think tank, which concludes
The UK is at particular risk [of al-Queda terrorist attack] because it is the closest ally of the United States, has deployed armed forced in the military campaigns to topple the Taleban regime in Afghanistan and in Iraq, and has taken a leading role in international intelligence, police and judicial cooperation against Al-Qaeda and in efforts to suppress its finances.
The expected response was given by Foreign Secretary Jack Straw:
The terrorists have struck across the world, in countries allied with the United States, backing the war in Iraq, and in countries which had nothing whatever to do with the war in Iraq.

They struck in Kenya, in Tanzania, in Indonesia, in the Yemen, they struck this weekend in Turkey which was not supporting our action in Iraq.

It is the terrorists who will seek any excuse whatsoever for their action and it is the responsibility of people in the civilised world to stand up to that terrorism and not provide them with any excuse whatsoever.
To respond to those who would conclude that Britain should not have ever gotten involved, British Defense Secretary John Reid uses the analogy of facing down a bully:
And the idea that somehow by running away from the school bully, then the bully will not come after you is a thesis that is known to be completely untrue by every kid in the playground and it is also refuted by every piece of historical evidence that we have.
First off, what is the Chatham House paper really saying? Primarily, it is an analysis of British anti-terrorism policies, addressing the complexities peculiar to Britian because they must face threats from both foreign terrorists--al Qaeda--and domestic terrorists--opponents of the Good Friday accords in Northern Ireland. Chatham House argues that a pre-9/11 focus on the domestic front left the door open for the foreign terrorists. The broad theme of the paper seems to be that the UK government has good ideas for combatting terrorism, but the implementation of those ideas is questionable.

Of relevance to the debate the memo is being thrown into, Chatham House's primary argument seems to be that the war in Iraq aided in al Qaeda recruitment.
There is no doubt that the situation over Iraq has imposed particular difficulties for the UK, and for the wider coalition against terrorism. It gave a boost to the Al-Qaeda network's propaganda, recruitment, and fundraising, caused a major split in the coalition, provided an ideal targeting and training area for Al-Qaeda-linked terrorists, and deflected resources and assistance that could have been deployed to assist the Karzai government and to bring bin Laden to justice.
Can even the most adamant supporters of the Iraq war argue with a straight face that the sight of US and UK bombs falling on Arab homes during the war, of American and British military forces patrolling the streets of an Arab country, and of course the images out of Abu Ghraib had no impact on al Qaeda recruiting? I would think this would be pretty much a given. Is Chatham House arguing that a head-in-the-sand approach would have prevented the London bombings? No. Straw's totally correct comments on the breadth of terrorist activities are irrelevant to Chatham House's arguments.

Now, Reid invokes the analogy of the bully to argue the head-in-the-sand approach would not work. Let us push this analogy even further. Most will agree that ignoring a bully will not protect one against him. This is Reid's point. Avoiding confrontation with al Qaeda will not ensure security against bin Laden's attacks. But what does confronting a bully bring? In the end, perhaps one will put the bully down. But in the mean time the bully will continue his bullying ways. If I am confronting that bully, will he not target his activities more on me than on those who avoid him? Sure.

The point is simple. Reid argues that we should confront terrorism. Certainly that's true, and one of the reasons we should not have gone into Iraq: we should have focused on confronting terrorism, not gotten sidetracked by regime change in Iraq. But there is a price to confronting terrorism, namely that they will target their fire more on us than on those who do not confront them. That does not mean those with their heads in the sand will escape the terrorists' wrath, but they will hit the US and allied countries more than, say, France.

The governments of both the US and UK should be honest enough with their people to admit there is a price to fighting terror, and it is not just the casualties on the frontlines. By choosing to go after al Qaeda, our nations are more at risk and domestic vigilance against terrorism must be heightened. In denying this simple and obvious truth, both governments deceive their people, thinking they cannot handle the truth. They are the ones with their heads in the sand.

Now, having said all that, the media are being irresponsible in their coverage of the memo. Reuters' headline is "Backing U.S in Iraq put UK at risk, think tank says" which totally misrepresents what Chatham House is saying.

Be that as it may, government discourse should be based on facts, not the spin of newspapers trying to generate a controversy.

Thursday, July 14, 2005

A Meme Worth Taking

I'm not usually into this kind of thing, but what the heck. I got this meme from the Listless Lawyer blog.

====================================

Overview: This post is a community experiment with two broad purposes. The first is to create publicly accessible data about bloggers’ personalities, which may have sociological value in addition to being just plain fun. The second is to track the propagation of this meme through blogspace. Full details and explanation can be found on the original posting: (http://pixnaps.blogspot.com/2005/06/meme-worth-spreading.html)

Instructions (to join in the experiment):

1) Take the IPIP-NEO personality test and the Political Compass quiz, if you have not done so already.

2) Copy to the clipboard that section of this post that is between the double lines, and paste it into your blog editor. (Blogger users may wish to use ‘compose’ mode to preserve formatting and hyperlinks. Otherwise, be sure to add hyperlinks as necessary.)

3) Replace the answers in the “survey” section below with your own.

4) Add your blog information to the “track list”, in the form: “Linked title - URL - optional GUID”.

5) Any additional comments should go outside of the double lines, including the (optional) nomination of bloggers you wish to pass this experimental meme on to.

6) Post it to your blog!

Survey:

Age: 36
Gender: Male
Location: Milwaukee, WI
Religion: Christian
Occupation: Software Engineer
Began blogging (dd/mm/yy): 02/05/2004

Political Compass results
Economic Left/Right: -4.13
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -2.72

IPIP-NEO results

EXTRAVERSION: 2
Friendliness 13
Gregariousness 8
Assertiveness 54
Activity Level 10
Excitement-Seeking 0
Cheerfulness 1

AGREEABLENESS: 91
Trust 70
Morality 89
Altruism 69
Co-operation 93
Modesty 82
Sympathy 63

CONSCIENTIOUSNESS: 75
Self-Efficacy 67
Orderliness 25
Dutifulness 66
Achievement-Striving 76
Self-Discipline 68
Cautiousness 96

NEUROTICISM: 60
Anxiety 45
Anger 52
Depression 86
Self-Consciousness 58
Immoderation 48
Vulnerability 48

OPENNESS TO EXPERIENCE: 17
Imagination 19
Artistic Interests 14
Emotionality 6
Adventurousness 28
Intellect 87
Liberalism 25

Track List:
1. Philosophy, et cetera - pixnaps.blogspot.com - pixnaps97a2
2. Pharyngula - pharyngula.org - pharyngula3128d2f0
3. World Wide Rant - www.worldwiderant.com - wwr1004ao
4. In The Agora - www.intheagora.com - ita5415dq
5. The Listless Lawyer - www.listlesslawyer.com/blog/ - llb94576
6. Doc's Home - dr_saaron.blogspot.com - docaar53154

====================================

Wednesday, July 13, 2005

More on TV Coverage of Darfur

Yesterday, I linked to the American Progress page which presents analysis of US television network news coverage of the genocide in Darfur compared to coverage of celebrity news. To summarize the findings reported in their tables, the site goes on to say
Here is a more concrete example of how broadcast and cable news media chose to focus its attention over the course of just a few days in June. On June 21, the BBC reported that rebel and government forces were battling in north-eastern Sudan and that there were heavy casualties on both sides. On June 24, the BBC reported that Sudanese planes dropped bombs for the second day in a row in this same area maiming several civilians.

During this same period of time ABC, CBS and NBC failed to provide any news segments on Sudan, while CNN, FOX and MSNBC issued a total of nine reports on the violence in Sudan. What did they choose to air instead: 322 segments on Tom Cruise; 209 segments on Michael Jackson; and 84 segments on the "Runaway Bride".
I don't think any elaboration is required.

A Hawk Questions Himself as His Son Goes to War

Eliot Cohen, an influential neocon academic, is expressing second thoughts about his support for the war.
But a pundit should not recommend a policy without adequate regard for the ability of those in charge to execute it, and here I stumbled. I could not imagine, for example, that the civilian and military high command would treat "Phase IV" -- the post-combat period that has killed far more Americans than the "real" war -- as of secondary importance to the planning of Gen. Tommy Franks's blitzkrieg. I never dreamed that Ambassador Paul Bremer and Gen. Ricardo Sanchez, the two top civilian and military leaders early in the occupation of Iraq -- brave, honorable and committed though they were -- would be so unsuited for their tasks, and that they would serve their full length of duty nonetheless. I did not expect that we would begin the occupation with cockamamie schemes of creating an immobile Iraqi army to defend the country's borders rather than maintain internal order, or that the under-planned, under-prepared and in some respects mis-manned Coalition Provisional Authority would seek to rebuild Iraq with big construction contracts awarded under federal acquisition regulations, rather than with small grants aimed at getting angry, bewildered young Iraqi men off the streets and into jobs.
He is still arguing the case for war, and only questioning the administration's abilty to execute it. I disagree with that (the war itself was never a good idea or in our interests), but it is refreshing to hear an honest appraisal of the administration's incompetence from those who supported the war. Too many war supporters are too busy trying to cover their butts to be man enough to question those who bungled the occupation.

Cohen writes in light of his son, an Army officer, being deployed to Iraq. What does he feel as his son ships out?
Pride, of course -- great pride. And fear. And an occasional burning in the gut, a flare of anger at empty pieties and lame excuses, at flip answers and a lack of urgency, at a failure to hold those at the top to the standards of accountability that the military system rightly imposes on subalterns.

It is a flicker of rage that two years into an insurgency, we still expose our troops in Humvees to the blasts of roadside bombs -- knowing that even the armored version of that humble successor to the Jeep is simply not designed for warfare along guerrilla-infested highways, while, at the same time, knowing that plenty of countries manufacture armored cars that are. It is disbelief at a manpower system that, following its prewar routines, ships soldiers off to war for a year or 15 months, giving them two weeks of leave at the end, when our British comrades, more experienced in these matters and wiser in pacing themselves, ship troops out for half that time, and give them an extra month on top of their regular leave after an operational deployment.

It is the sick feeling that churned inside me at least 18 months ago, when a glib and upbeat Pentagon bureaucrat assured me that the opposition in Iraq consisted of "5,000 bitter-enders and criminals," even after we had killed at least that many. It flames up when hearing about the veteran who in theory has a year between Iraq rotations, but in fact, because he transferred between units after returning from one tour, will go back to Iraq half a year later, and who, because of "stop-loss orders" involuntarily extending active duty tours, will find himself in combat nine months after his enlistment runs out. And all this because after 9/11, when so many Americans asked for nothing but an opportunity to serve, we did not expand our Army and Marine Corps when we could, even though we knew we would need more troops.
Cohen closes by saying
The scholar in me is not surprised when our leaders blunder, although the pundit in me is dismayed when they do. What the father in me expects from our leaders is, simply, the truth -- an end to happy talk and denials of error, and a seriousness equal to that of the men and women our country sends into the fight.
Cohen and I may have divergent views of the war, but on this we agree. We need a president who is man enough to tell the truth, man enough to be worthy of the men and women whose lives are being put at risk for his policies. If to no one else, he owes those in the armed forces the respect of being honest and open.

Tuesday, July 12, 2005

Coalition for Darfur: A Prayer for the Dying

This week's Coalition for Darfur post updates readers on Congressional efforts to address the slaughter of Darfur. Thanks to pressure from the president, efforts to impose a meaningful response have stalled. Instead, Congress has called on the American people to pray. Now, I'm all for prayer, but this is pathetic.
If members of Congress are truly concerned about the deaths of nearly 400,000 Darfuris, or the fates of an estimated 3 million more, they are certainly capable of doing more than quietly declaring a "National Weekend of Prayer and Reflection."

Save Darfur deserves credit for getting Congress to even do this much, but this resolution cannot absolve Congress of its pathetic failure to adequately address the situation in Darfur. If anything, it only serves to highlight the government's utter lack of concern.
We Americans should be so proud. Give me a break!

Be A Witness

Think Progress writes:
In June, CNN, FOXNews, NBC/MSNBC, ABC, and CBS devoted over 8, 000 segments of coverage of trivial matters like the "runaway bride," the Michael Jackson trial, and actor Tom Cruise. Meanwhile, the same stations aired only 126 segments on Sudan.
Sudan, you will recall, is where the Darfur genocide, which has displaced millions and killed hundreds of thousands, is. But I guess that's minor compared to Tom Cruise's love affairs. Kind of like the tsuanmi which killed 100,000 or so, but more importantly disrupted some celebrity vacations!

American Progress has setup a website to allow users to send emails to the major news networks to demand more coverage of the genocide in Darfur. I encourage all readers to visit and join in the call. The home page also includes statistics about coverage at the different networks. For example, ABC hasn't had a story on Darfur in 16 days. NBC seems particularly bad. In June, a whopping 5 stories on Sudan, 352 on Tom Cruise. Now there's having priorities.

Monday, July 11, 2005

Is the Lottery Racist?

Folkbum links to an article in the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reporting statistical analysis of lottery winnings. The article finds that the lottery has a higher payout in rich zip codes ($0.45 per dollar spent on tickets) than in poor zip codes ($0.06 per dollar spent on tickets). I posted the following as a comment on Folkbum's post, but I will reproduce it here.

I find these statistics unconvincing. The article presents the ratio of total winnings of prizes over $600 to the total lottery sales. Tickets with higher payouts would presumably cost more as well. Therefore, I would expect to see fewer high payout sales in the poor zip codes than in the rich zip codes. It follows that the payout ratio would be higher in the richer zip codes.

Let me put it another way. I would expect to find, generally speaking, residents of rich zip codes buying the high payout tickets and residents of poor zip codes buying the low payout tickets. Therefore, filtering the winnings data to only include those on higher payout tickets introduces a bias into the statistics, rendering any conclusions highly suspect.

This looks to me like a simple function of economic class rather than any designed discrimination by the lottery system. To be a meaningful analysis, the bias in the statistics should be removed and winnings at all levels included. There also would need to be corrections based on the different odds of winning in the different games. Only then are we truly comparing apples to apples.

Update: In astronomy this is called a selection effect, and is one of the most common pitfalls in statistical analysis. One imposes selection criteria on data being analyzed, but does not consider the biases those criteria create. An obvious example would be conducting a poll of Assembly of God members and trumpeting the finding that President Bush is not as unpopular as other polls suggest. Selecting members of such congregations will bias the result toward Bush supporters, presumably, so the conclusions are not meaningful.

Friday, July 08, 2005

Using the Term "Terrorist"

After 9/11, many media outlets adopted a policy of not using the term "terrorist" to describe terrorists. Instead, terms like "militant" were used. The idea behind this was that "terrorism" is a subjective term. The BBC's guidelines are
We must report acts of terror quickly, accurately, fully and responsibly. Our credibility is undermined by the careless use of words which carry emotional or value judgements. The word "terrorist" itself can be a barrier rather than an aid to understanding. We should try to avoid the term, without attribution. We should let other people characterise while we report the facts as we know them.

We should not adopt other people's language as our own. It is also usually inappropriate to use words like "liberate", "court martial" or "execute" in the absence of a clear judicial process. We should convey to our audience the full consequences of the act by describing what happened. We should use words which specifically describe the perpetrator such as "bomber", "attacker", "gunman", "kidnapper", "insurgent, and "militant". Our responsibility is to remain objective and report in ways that enable our audiences to make their own assessments about who is doing what to whom.
After yesterday's bombings in London, the BBC headlined an article "London rocked by terror attacks" in apparent violation of their guidelines. Needless to say, many people, typically conservatives, never approved of these guidelines. Mediacrity sarcastically takes the BBC to task for using the word.

Here's the thing. It really is a subjective term. What is terrorism? The dictionary definition is
The unlawful use or threatened use of force or violence by a person or an organized group against people or property with the intention of intimidating or coercing societies or governments, often for ideological or political reasons.
Secretary Rumsfeld said
Terrorism, of course, has a lot of definitions and people have different views as to what it means precisely. For myself, I think of the word as meaning an act whereby innocent people are involved and killed.
By these definitions, what is the most spectacular terrorist attack in history? The US bombing of Hiroshima. We bombed a civilian target, killing a huge number of people, for the purpose of intimidating the Japanese government into surrender. The US military makes bin Laden look like an amateur, especially when one includes the bombings of Dresden, Tokyo, Hanoi, etc.

But do Americans typically think of that as a terrorist act? Of course not. If someone wrote an article on the Hiroshima bombing and used the word "terrorist" to describe the crew of the Enola Gay, would that not be misleading and confusing to the reader? Absolutely. The term has a bias built into it that does not belong in nominally objective reporting. It's ironic that convervatives, who often complain about bias and slant in the media, will complain about a policy that attempts to remove bias and slant from their coverage. Agreeing with the bias and slant does not make it acceptable, any more than liberals agreeing with the bias in the LA Times makes it acceptable.

Death Toll as Measure of Success

Andrew Sullivan quotes the Economist:
What the attacks also show, however, is that well co-ordinated though the four explosions were, they were not terribly effective. Chance plays a big role in such attacks. The bombs in Madrid last year which killed 191 people might have killed many more had the station roof collapsed. The September 11th hijackings might have killed fewer than the eventual 2,752 had the twin towers of the World Trade Centre not melted down and collapsed. As The Economist went to press, the toll in the four London bombs was not clear, but the estimate of at least 33 deaths was thankfully far smaller than in Madrid. By the terrible calculus of terrorism, the attacks should thus be counted as a failure - sign of weakness, not strength.
I don't think death toll is a proper measure of the success or failure of a terrorist attack. Whether 2700 or 700 people died on 9/11, the resultant fear and, yes, terror would have been the same. The terror comes not from the death toll but from the image of skyscrapers burning and crashing to the ground. It comes from the total uncertainty of not knowing if the bus or subway train I take to work in the morning is going to blow up.

The terrorists' goal is not to kill as many as possible, though they probably do want that. Rather their goal is to spread fear and make that fear pervasive in our lives, so pervasive that we will go to great lengths to make it stop. The terrorists win when we give into that fear, as the people of Spain did after the Madrid bombings. The terrorists lose when we shrug off that fear.

The London attacks would have to be considered a failure, not because relatively few people died, but because the people of London got on with their lives. Sullivan's blog is full of accounts yesterday of people going to the pub, reading the latest soccer news, playing cricket, etc. Rather than being paralyzed with fear, the people of London lived their lives. As one emailer is quoted on his blog, "It's not callousness or indifference to carry on as normal, it's quiet defiance."

London and Iraq

To those who would try to buttress the argument supporting the Iraq war with the London terror attacks of yesterday, Josh Marshall writes
Today we've had a reminder of what we face. But let's be clear what we're seeing. In more venues than I'd care to admit I've seen posts and speechifying which say, in so many words: "For all those who've gone wobbly on Iraq, see, you got complacent! But terrorism is real!"

The real threat we face isn't in Iraq. And being in Iraq isn't diminishing it. The real threat is painfully low-tech but yet highly-lethal acts of terror committed -- in most cases -- in the great metropoles of the West. And I suspect we'll find, as we did in 9/11, that the immediate perpetrators were neither people who were minding their own business before we invaded Iraq nor even people who have their main base in the core countries of the Arab Middle East, but rather recruits from the disaffected and deracinated diaspora of Muslim immigrants in the West -- a tiny fraction out of the millions who are making their homes in our country and in those of Europe.

...

The threat of terrorism is very real, especially in major cities. But with respect to the folks who want to lasso this into a pillar of support for a disastrous policy in Iraq, frankly, we already knew terrorism was real. Most people are sick to death of our bumbling in Iraq because it's distracted us from actually defending ourselves.

Aid to Africa

In light of the recent Live 8 benefit concerts, Max Boot writes that what Africa's poor need is, not more aid money, but better government. Rich nations have been pouring money into Africa for decades. What has that money bought? More poverty.
In the last 50 years, $2.3 trillion has been spent to help poor countries. Yet Africans' income and life expectancy have gone down, not up.
Simply pouring more money into the situation is not helping, and Boot argues, is making things worse. The money goes into the coffers of the corrupt government rather than to the people, or causes inflation which drives small businesses out of business.

As with any problem, one must consider the root causes and address them. Otherwise, no amount of money will make the problem go away. In the case of poor African nations, the root problems include what Bob Geldof called "corruption and thuggery."
Africans continue to be tormented not by the G-8, as anti-poverty campaigners imply, but by their own politicos, including Sudanese President Omar Hassan Ahmed Bashir, who is abetting genocide in Darfur, and Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe, who is turning his once-prosperous country into a famine-plagued basket case. Unless it's linked to specific "good governance" benchmarks (as with the new U.S. Millennium Challenge Account), more aid risks subsidizing dysfunctional regimes.

Any real solution to Africa's problems must focus on the root causes of poverty — mainly misgovernment. Instead of pouring billions more down the same old rat holes, maybe the Live 8 crew should promote a more innovative approach: Use the G-8's jillions 2 hire mercenaries 4 the overthrow of the 6 most thuggish regimes in Africa. That would do more to help ordinary Africans than any number of musical extravaganzas.
Instapundit writes, "Perhaps the next concert should be called Liber8." Indeed.

Wednesday, July 06, 2005

Coalition for Darfur: Stagnation

This week's Coalition for Darfur post isn't a post at all. Instead, I will post an email the coalition founders sent out to members this week.
I've tried to write a weekly coalition post ever since Feddie and I started the blog back in early March and, frankly, I am running out of ways to say "the world does not care." So this week I am just sending you a link to a piece written by Fergal Keane, a journalist, author of a book about Rwanda entitled "Season of Blood" and producer of a recent BBC "Panorama" episode on Darfur. I encourage you all to read it and excerpt it as you see fit.

I am going to try and continue to write weekly posts, but I can't make any promises. The situation seems to have stagnated and the international community still doesn't seem to care and I see no point in just saying the same thing over and over and over. I am going to continue to regularly update the coalition blog - and if I have something worth saying, I will send out a weekly post. But for now, I am depressed and burned out and completely out of things to say.

Tuesday, July 05, 2005

Abraham Lincoln in Time

Time Magazine has a very interesting collection of articles on Abraham Lincoln entitled "Uncovering the Real Abe Lincoln." Lincoln has been so iconified over the years that the reality of the man has gotten lost. These articles attempt to ferret out the man behind the legend.

Monday, July 04, 2005

Blogroll

I have found that a handful of bloggers have added me to their blogroll, so I have created my own to return the favor.

Abortion and the Next Justice

One of the reasons the nomination of Justice O'Connor's replacement on the Supreme Court, indeed any replacement, is the fear that the balance of votes on the issue of abortion will be tilted against Roe v. Wade. The Listless Lawyer tries to ease liberals' minds on the question; the worst case scenario is that abortion ends up back in the legislative process and the individual states would decide to legalize it or not, and most would.

But this does point to a fundamental hypocrisy on the conservative side. Remember, these are the guys constantly railing against activist judges. They, as do I, want judges who will interpret the law, not make law by decree. This is why I think Roe v. Wade was a bad decision: nothing in the constitution addresses abortion, so it should have been left to the democratic process for the people to decide. Instead the court essentially decreed that abortion was a legal right, a decree for which there is no appeal.

Be that as it may, Roe v. Wade is now the official interpretation of the constitution. I'm no lawyer, but there is a principle in law called stare decis, which is the "principal that the precedent decisions are to be followed by the courts." This principle exists
based on the assumption that certainty, predictability and stability in the law are the major objectives of the legal system; i.e., that parties should be able to regulate their conduct and enter into relationships with reasonable assurance of the governing rules of law.
In other words, continuity of the law is desired, in general; the Constitution does not have one interpretation today, and another tomorrow. If it did, the foundations of the legal system would be undermined.

The judges who the conservatives want on the bench are those expected to go against stare decis on the question of abortion. The desire is to rewrite the law to say whatever they want it to say, exactly what they accuse the liberals of doing. This seems the very definition of judicial activism. A truly conservative, non-activist judge would restrict him- or her-self to what the law says, and today the law says abortion is a constitutional right. One's agreement with that finding is irrelevant. That is the official reading of the Constitution.

I wonder if this is why some earlier conservative appointees, e.g. O'Connor herself, have ended up disappointing those who appointed them. They personally do not hold to Roe v. Wade, but have enough respect for the law to vote according to established legal principles so they end up being more "liberal" than the right-wingers expect when they championed those judges.

Sunday, July 03, 2005

How Nomination and Confirmation Used to Work

As the politically minded prepare for the upcoming battle over Bush's nomination to replace Justice O'Conner on the Supreme Court, Think Progress reminds readers how President Clinton approached filling vacancies on the court. Rather than prepare for battle with the Republicans, then in the minority, he consulted with them and, gasp, listened to them. The result? Two smooth confirmations.

The president says he wants a dignified confirmation for whomever he nominates. He should take a lesson from his predecessor. (Of course, that assumes the Democrat playing the role of Senator Hatch--Leahy--would be willing to work with Bush the same way Hatch worked with Clinton. That remains to be seen.)

Friday, July 01, 2005

Dr. Z on Favre

Paul Zimmerman's mailbag this week talks a lot about Brett Favre. Some points:
Jon of Chicago feels Favre "makes rookie mistakes and relies too much on arm strength, rather than reads." He noticed that KC Joyner, the guy who wrote the chart book I mentioned last week, shares his opinion. How about me?

Well, now we've hit the trifecta because I agree with both you and KC. Favre's a great competitor who will get my vote when his name comes up for Hall of Fame selection, but he just throws too many bad passes in crucial situations.
Favre's stat line [interceptions per pass attempt], though, shows the opposite [of Marino and Elway]. Under Mike Holmgren, during Brett's first seven years as a Packer, his pick percentage was lower than in his six post-Holmgren years. I don't think he's getting the same level of coaching. I think he's allowed to get away with too many sloppy habits, which are always covered up, occasionally even admired. Remember that weird toss that everyone loved, when Favre was way across the line and heading for the Vikings' end zone last year? He laughed about it, the announcers laughed about it. All it did was keep the Pack off the scoreboard.

I guess I tend to be tough on Favre because everyone else brushes off his miscues. It's part of the hype.
I'm a Packer fan, and became one back in the 90's because of Favre. He is still one of my favorite players. But in all the adulation given him, he does often get a pass on the flaws of his game, flaws which are getting worse as he ages. He has been a big factor in post-season losses over the last few years. It is no coincidence that the Packers rebounded to the upper eschelons of the conference, after some disappointing seasons after Holmgren left, when the offense began to rely on Favre less and Ahman Green more. (Only to see the post-season campaigns cut short by Favre interceptions, particularly in 2001 and 2003.)

Even when we admire a player, we must be honest and admit the flaws as well as the greatness.